Reflecting on the Democratic National Convention 2024

The altered landscape

During 19-22 August 2024, the US held the DNC in Chicago. By any objective measure, it was a success. How do you get *objective* measures? One is to look at how many people tuned in to see it:

DNC v. RNC ratings (Nielsen)

DAY ONE DNC: 20 million RNC: 18 million

DAY TWO DNC: 20.8 million RNC: 14.8 million

DAY THREE DNC: 20.2 million RNC: 18 million

[For Day 4, the RNC had 25.4 million. The data for the DNC is not out yet.]

Executive conclusion: The DNC had a bigger audience.

The actual result of voting intention change as a consequence is yet to be measured. In a week’s time, we will find out. In the betting markets, the impact of the rise of Kamala Harris is being felt.

For example, on 22 August, the betting markets were saying this

One day later, it was showing this

But you cannot take these things too seriously. Why?

The electoral college betting was showing Trump winning by quite a margin on 23 August.

These two results are self contradictory. [The reason is fairly obvious. Pennsylvania betting is ever so slightly favoring Trump at the moment. With 19 Electoral College votes, that is enough to generate this anomaly.

Executive possibility: There is an arbitrage possibility in these markets.

Executive question: Can a clever trader exploit that?

Executive answer: No. The transaction cost will eat up the profits generated.

The rise of Kamala Harris as the presidential nominee was nothing short of spectacular. 

Just over a month ago, the Republicans were riding high. Mr Biden was perceived to have lost the debate with Mr Trump. Mr Trump got the formal nomination.

Executive event: Mr Trump got shot.

The sympathy support flowed in. The last time a president got shot was Ronald Reagan. After he was shot, his popularity shot up (no pun intended) by ten percent. Sympathy vote is real. From Argentina to Bangladesh to Brazil to India, we have seen the manifestation of sympathy votes time and again.

In this case, when Mr Trump resumed playing golf and slacked off the campaign trail, he was sure he put Mr Biden away. His team got completely flummoxed when Mr Biden passed the baton to Ms Harris - a daughter of a Jamaican and an Indian immigrant. 

Unlike most other countries with presidential voting, the US does not have a first past the post system. You have to win each state separately. So, you might win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College votes and lose the election. This is exactly what happened in 2016. Ms Rodham Clinton won the popular vote by five million but lost to Mr Trump in the EC count. Close but no cigar - as they say.

The Rise of Kamala Harris

In the past month, she has already raised $500 million. Her strategy is to spend more money on Youtube and other social media than on TV. The reason is simple: Younger voters spend more time on social media getting news than watching TV.

Ms Harris has masterfully run a media team headed by David Plouffe. Her delivery style is picking deliberate sound bites rather than getting into the weeds of policy issues. 

That she was a prosecutor has come in handy when the opponent happens to be a convicted felon. 

Barack Obama is strongly supporting her by hitting the weaknesses of Mr Trump. It helps that he is considered a black candidate. We should recall that he was half white. Yet, in the US, to the whites, either you are white or you are not. [I have seen it first hand from the relatives of my (white) wife.]

Obama speech

Executive note: He is talking about size - but not about the crowd. Only a black person can get away with that joke.

VP Walz

Harris has picked a rural white male Governor of Minnesota as the running mate - Tim Walz (pronounced “Walls”). Minnesota has a history of producing Vice Presidents - but never a President. 

Minnesota Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan jokes: “We’re really good at raising vice presidents and growing vice presidents in Minnesota”. We take seconds-in-command very seriously: Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and now Tim Walz.”

If he does get elected vice president, Flanagan will also make history by becoming Minnesota’s first female governor and the first female Native American governor in the entire country. 

Executive conclusion: The election of the first female Indian-American President is intimately tied to the election of the first female American-Indian governor.

When I lived in Minnesota as a PhD student at the University of Minnesota, I often got puzzled looks from the people when I said I am an Indian. [Once I said to a little old lady on the bus that I am from India, she exclaimed, “Oh, my brother lives there.” Further conversation revealed that her brother actually lived in Indiana.]

The Acceptance Speech of Kamala Harris

She could say that because she *was* the public prosecutor - not just any old lawyer pleading a case.

Her forty odd minute speech dwelled about twenty percent of the time about her upbringing. Her mother Shyamala loomed large. Most people in the audience would not have a clue that Shyamala was due to go back to India after her studies and have an arranged marriage. The very fact that the two daughters were named Kamala and Maya speaks volumes about her Indian heritage.

If you listen to her talk carefully, you will see how it is couched in a very systematic legalese. When you go to law school, the first thing you learn in trial advocacy is that you have to make the case for yourself and a case against your opponent. Then, you set the stage with how you were raised right. Her line about her neighbor being part of her family by love - not by blood - was pitch perfect. 

The People Left Out

The single largest nonwhite ethnic group in the US is the Hispanics. It represents over 20 percent of the population. Nearly 70 percent of them are of Mexican origin. The largest unions in the US are not white at all. They are Hispanics. This group is taken for granted by the Democrats (with the exception of the Cubans and the Haitians - who have been staunchly Republicans). You might think that the Democrats will be strongly embracing this group. You will be wrong. Two small examples from the convention will tell you the story.

Every single person in that cleaning crew at the convention is a Mexican American. All of them. You go anywhere in the US and observe the people working in the background. They are all speaking Spanish. Every hotel/motel in the US has room service people almost exclusively Spanish speakers - even if the motel is owned by some Mr Patel.

I would fly out of Mexico City early in the morning. I would eat breakfast at the McDonalds. I would place my order in Spanish. Four hours later, I would land in Chicago, I would order my lunch - in Spanish. The story would repeat in LA, Miami, Denver, Dallas, Phoenix, DC, NYC or Boston.

When you look at the close caption that ran in the convention, it showed this

In 2024, where every cheap phone can translate what you say in a hundred different languages instantly, this should not happen. If it does, you will lose their support - bigly.